DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 09Z THU 02/01 - 06Z FRI 03/01 2003
ISSUED: 02/01 09:06Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN EUROPE AND THE MEDITERRANEAN

SYNOPSIS

SURFACE LOW BENEATH WESTERLY JET-STREAK IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD. A STRONG WIND FIELD HAS FORMED ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK NEAR A POST-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THE STRATIFICATION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL FOR SATURATED PARCELS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-EUROPEAN GEN TSTMS AREA. OVER THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN THE AIR-MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

DISCUSSION

...WESTERN EUROPE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR A POSTFRONTAL TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE TOO SMALL TO RETAIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY. MAIN REASONS ARE THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR THE TROUGH AND THE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, EVEN OUTSIDE CONVECTION SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN FRANCE, BELGIUM, LUXEMBURG, CETRAL AND SOUTHERN GERMANY AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS WELL AS WESTERN AUSTRIA. SOME NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE BAY OF BISCAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK VORT MAX APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN FRANCE.

#